{"id":11515,"date":"2020-12-29T16:02:22","date_gmt":"2020-12-29T16:02:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/real-estate-market-trends-2020-lets-take-stock\/"},"modified":"2025-08-27T14:43:02","modified_gmt":"2025-08-27T14:43:02","slug":"real-estate-market-trends-2020-lets-take-stock","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/en\/real-estate-market-trends-2020-lets-take-stock\/","title":{"rendered":"Real estate market trends 2020: Let's take stock"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>In this article you will find the latest considerations regarding the 2020 real estate market, a peculiar year in all respects. To base my considerations I will take, as in previous reports, the latest market update released by Nomisma, a well-known Italian statistical agency <\/p>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-ht-block-toc is-style-outline htoc htoc--position-wide toc-list-style-plain\" data-htoc-state=\"expanded\"><span class=\"htoc__title\"><span class=\"ht_toc_title\">Table of Contents<\/span><span class=\"htoc__toggle\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"16\"><g fill=\"#444\"><path d=\"M15 7H1c-.6 0-1 .4-1 1s.4 1 1 1h14c.6 0 1-.4 1-1s-.4-1-1-1z\"><\/path><path d=\"M15 1H1c-.6 0-1 .4-1 1s.4 1 1 1h14c.6 0 1-.4 1-1s-.4-1-1-1zM15 13H1c-.6 0-1 .4-1 1s.4 1 1 1h14c.6 0 1-.4 1-1s-.4-1-1-1z\"><\/path><\/g><\/svg><\/span><\/span><div class=\"htoc__itemswrap\"><ul class=\"ht_toc_list\"><li class=\"\"><a href=\"#htoc-nelle-puntate-precedenti\">In previous episodes.<\/a><\/li><li class=\"\"><a href=\"#htoc-valori-mercato-immobiliare-2021\">Real estate market values 2021<\/a><\/li><li class=\"\"><a href=\"#htoc-come-andr-il-mercato-immobiliare-nel-2021\">How will the housing market fare in 2021?<\/a><\/li><li class=\"\"><a href=\"#htoc-riassuntone-finale\">Final summary<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"htoc-nelle-puntate-precedenti\">In previous episodes.<\/h2>\n\n<p>In April this year, I had reported to you the forecasts made by Nomisma that predicted <strong>3 types of scenarios<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n<p>One <strong><span style=\"color: #00ff00;\">\"soft\" one<\/span><\/strong> which projected 2020 closing at <strong><span style=\"color: #00ff00;\">564.000<\/span><\/strong> purchases and sales<\/p>\n\n<p>One <strong><span style=\"color: #ffcc00;\">\"basic\"<\/span><\/strong> with <strong><span style=\"color: #ffcc00;\">494.000<\/span><\/strong> trades<\/p>\n\n<p>and finally one <strong><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">\"hard\"<\/span><\/strong> with <strong><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">479.000<\/span><\/strong> trades<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/numero-compravendite-1024x473.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1550 lazyload\"\/><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"473\" src=\"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/numero-compravendite-1024x473.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1550 lazyload\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/numero-compravendite-1024x473.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/numero-compravendite-300x139.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/numero-compravendite-768x355.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/numero-compravendite-1536x710.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/numero-compravendite-2048x946.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/numero-compravendite.jpg 2195w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/noscript><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>Fortunately the most optimistic predictions turned out to be correct . According to the \"Christmas\" interview I conducted in December with Luca Dondi ( yes I am wearing a sweater with Santas ) the most catastrophic scenarios were avoided thanks to the post lock-down rebound. <\/p>\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><iframe class=\"lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/20d3oeLdC2s\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n\n<p>In November, <strong>new forecast data for 2020<\/strong> were released that basically support the most optimistic scenarios. In fact, according to the statistical agency, 2020 will end with about <strong><span style=\"color: #ffcc00;\">500,000 purchases and sales<\/span><\/strong> in line with the baseline scenario profiled in recent months, but with about <strong>100,000<\/strong> fewer buys and sells than <strong>2019.<\/strong> <\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/report-nomisma-novembre.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1763 lazyload\"\/><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"901\" height=\"718\" src=\"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/report-nomisma-novembre.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1763 lazyload\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/report-nomisma-novembre.jpg 901w, https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/report-nomisma-novembre-300x239.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/report-nomisma-novembre-768x612.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 901px) 100vw, 901px\" \/><\/noscript><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>As you can see from the graph, the curve is not like the previous one that indicated a major reduction in transactions even for the next three years, but according to the economic projections, we will soon return to a normal situation ( 2023\/2024 ).<\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"htoc-valori-mercato-immobiliare-2021\">Real estate market values 2021<\/h2>\n\n<p>Another consideration that emerged during our last live facebook discussion is the incredible<strong> ability of the housing market<\/strong> to hold down price reductions compared to a national economy that has lost <strong>10 to 15 percent <\/strong> over this period  <\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/andamento-prezzi-novembre.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1762 lazyload\"\/><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"964\" height=\"695\" src=\"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/andamento-prezzi-novembre.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1762 lazyload\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/andamento-prezzi-novembre.jpg 964w, https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/andamento-prezzi-novembre-300x216.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/andamento-prezzi-novembre-768x554.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 964px) 100vw, 964px\" \/><\/noscript><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>in the face of a double-digit change in GDP, it appears that real estate market values may have a very slight decline, if at all, in 2023 ( imperceptible but still positive ).<\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"htoc-come-andr-il-mercato-immobiliare-nel-2021\">How will the housing market fare in 2021?<\/h2>\n\n<p>In essence, this 2020 showed us again that the Italian real estate market benefits from strength in terms of capital preservation, which is largely covered by potential profitability derived from leasing.<\/p>\n\n<p>Recent regulatory interventions (110% bonus) are strategic expedients as they allow for the redevelopment of \"old\" urban heritage, as a recent <strong>Sun 24H<\/strong> article mentions<\/p>\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>The wealth of Italians lies in the homes they own, totaling nearly <strong>5.4 trillion euros.<\/strong> However, the wealth is deteriorating and urgent action is needed to put it back in good condition.<strong> Two-thirds of Italy's 35 million homes<\/strong> were built <strong>more than 50 years ago and only 9 percent in this century.<\/strong> In addition, according to a survey by Scenari Immobiliari, there are at least <strong>73 thousand buildings<\/strong> (for more than <strong>half a million apartments<\/strong>) that can be defined as severely deteriorated. And several bills on \"urban regeneration\" are being discussed for these. Awaiting new measures are various regulations for families and condominiums upgrading their properties.     <\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n<p>The Italian has always had a thing for bricks and mortar, and as long as there remains active demand, market values and transactions will continue to occur.<\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"htoc-riassuntone-finale\">Final summary<\/h2>\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>We \"only\" lost the buys and sells related to the 2 month stop<\/li><li>The economic effects of the pandemic have not yet arrived, between the suspension of foreclosures and evictions, suspension of layoffs etc. everything is frozen, but soon this amount of problems will impact the market <\/li><li>Prices for the moment have held ( will they hold even with the effects of the economic crisis?).<\/li><li>Delays related to the disbursement of credit are being felt, from the 45 days it used to take for a resolution we are now down to 3 months. This will slow down 2021 quite a bit. <\/li><li>The worst blow will fall on the commercial and office\/retail sector, with declining rents (lower rents) and consequent drop in values<\/li><\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In this article you will find the latest considerations regarding the 2020 real estate market, a peculiar year in all respects. To base my considerations I will take, as in previous reports, the latest market update released by Nomisma, a well-known Italian statistical agency In previous episodes. In April this year, I had reported to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":8000,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[262,273],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11515","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-buying","category-selling"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11515","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11515"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11515\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11518,"href":"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11515\/revisions\/11518"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8000"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11515"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11515"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11515"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}