{"id":11556,"date":"2020-04-27T09:01:51","date_gmt":"2020-04-27T09:01:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/nomisma-april-report-housing-market-goes-back-30-years\/"},"modified":"2025-08-27T14:43:11","modified_gmt":"2025-08-27T14:43:11","slug":"nomisma-april-report-housing-market-goes-back-30-years","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/en\/nomisma-april-report-housing-market-goes-back-30-years\/","title":{"rendered":"Nomisma April report: housing market goes back 30 years"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>In the last interview I did on behalf of <strong>Fimaa Veneto<\/strong> with <strong>Luca Dondi<\/strong> CEO of <strong>Nomisma<\/strong>, I had left off with a \"<strong>we hope to hear back soon with more comforting and positive data...\"<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<p>Well, Luca I heard back from him-but not for positive data!!!<\/p>\n\n<p>In this article you will find an update of the report released in late March by nomisma regarding the real estate outlook for the next two years.<\/p>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-ht-block-toc is-style-outline htoc htoc--position-wide toc-list-style-plain\" data-htoc-state=\"expanded\"><span class=\"htoc__title\"><span class=\"ht_toc_title\">Table of Contents<\/span><span class=\"htoc__toggle\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"16\"><g fill=\"#444\"><path d=\"M15 7H1c-.6 0-1 .4-1 1s.4 1 1 1h14c.6 0 1-.4 1-1s-.4-1-1-1z\"><\/path><path d=\"M15 1H1c-.6 0-1 .4-1 1s.4 1 1 1h14c.6 0 1-.4 1-1s-.4-1-1-1zM15 13H1c-.6 0-1 .4-1 1s.4 1 1 1h14c.6 0 1-.4 1-1s-.4-1-1-1z\"><\/path><\/g><\/svg><\/span><\/span><div class=\"htoc__itemswrap\"><ul class=\"ht_toc_list\"><li class=\"\"><a href=\"#htoc-quali-le-ripercussioni-sul-mercato-immobiliare\">What is the impact on the housing market?<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div>\n\n<!--more-->\n\n<p>Given the protracted Lockdown, the well-known statistical agency has decided to publish a new update that exacerbates the scenarios predicted in the previous one. If, as written <a href=\"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/2020\/04\/03\/andamento-del-mercato-2020-previsioni-e-proiezioni\/\">in my previous article<\/a>, 2 scenarios were originally predicted, one \"<span style=\"color: #99cc00;\">soft<\/span>\" and one \"<span style=\"color: #ff9900;\">hard<\/span>,\" in the new analysis the previous \"<span style=\"color: #ff9900;\">hard<\/span>\" scenario has become the \"base\" prediction, leaving room for a more severe horizon that I will call... \"<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">hardissimo\"<\/span> (ed.) <\/p>\n\n<p>Let's go and see what the institute provides for our beautiful country.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignleft\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/goldman-1024x807.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1542 lazyload\"\/><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"807\" src=\"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/goldman-1024x807.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1542 lazyload\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/goldman-1024x807.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/goldman-300x236.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/goldman-768x605.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/goldman.jpg 1383w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/noscript><\/figure>\n<\/div><div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignleft\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/ansa-1024x789.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1541 lazyload\"\/><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"789\" src=\"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/ansa-1024x789.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1541 lazyload\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/ansa-1024x789.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/ansa-300x231.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/ansa-768x592.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/ansa.jpg 1371w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/noscript><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>The data, corroborated by forecasts from the <strong>International Monetary Fund<\/strong> and the investment bank <strong>Goldman Sachs<\/strong>, in the <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Hardissimo<\/span> scenario predicted by Nomisma, <strong>GDP<\/strong> for 2020 will fall <strong>8.2<\/strong> points from the previous year, then halve in 2021<strong>(-4.2<\/strong>) and approach <strong>zero<\/strong> in 2022<strong>(-1.3<\/strong>)<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignleft\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/pil-1-1024x422.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1549 lazyload\"\/><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"422\" src=\"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/pil-1-1024x422.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1549 lazyload\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/pil-1-1024x422.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/pil-1-300x124.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/pil-1-768x317.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/pil-1-1536x634.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/pil-1-2048x845.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/pil-1.jpg 2262w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/noscript><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"htoc-quali-le-ripercussioni-sul-mercato-immobiliare\">What is the impact on the housing market?<\/h3>\n\n<p>If previously the worst-case scenario predicted a reduction to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><strong>500,000 purchases and sales<\/strong><\/span> by <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><strong>2020<\/strong><\/span>, today this value appears to be reduced by another <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>20,000 units<\/strong><\/span> ( forecast for this year <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>479,000 transactions<\/strong><\/span>) with a <strong>negative peak<\/strong> for <strong>2021<\/strong> and <strong>2022<\/strong> of <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>365.000<\/strong><\/span> transactions. A figure never seen before. <\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignleft\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/numero-compravendite-1024x473.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1550 lazyload\"\/><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"473\" src=\"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/numero-compravendite-1024x473.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1550 lazyload\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/numero-compravendite-1024x473.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/numero-compravendite-300x139.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/numero-compravendite-768x355.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/numero-compravendite-1536x710.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/numero-compravendite-2048x946.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/numero-compravendite.jpg 2195w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/noscript><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p><strong>NEVER<\/strong> since <strong>1985<\/strong> has our country fallen so far below <strong>400,000 transactions\/year<\/strong>. Even back in 2013, transactions had stopped at just under 390,000. We are facing a shocking and unparalleled real estate scenario.  <\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignleft\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/Grafico_NTN_abitazioni_885.gif\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1543 lazyload\"\/><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"885\" height=\"548\" src=\"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/Grafico_NTN_abitazioni_885.gif\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1543 lazyload\"\/><\/noscript><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>The most severe backlash is estimated in investment in the corporate sector. Whereas previously a<span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"> 50 percent<\/span> drop was expected from 2019, today that forecast has been reduced to <strong><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">one-third<\/span><\/strong> for 2020. <\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignleft\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/investimenti-corporate-1024x481.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1551 lazyload\"\/><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" src=\"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/investimenti-corporate-1024x481.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1551 lazyload\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/investimenti-corporate-1024x481.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/investimenti-corporate-300x141.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/investimenti-corporate-768x361.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/investimenti-corporate-1536x722.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/investimenti-corporate-2048x962.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/investimenti-corporate.jpg 2160w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/noscript><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>The decline in transactions according to Nomisma will also lead (based on the correlation of previous years) to a gradual decline in prices. As you can see in the table below, <strong>over the next two years<\/strong> a decline in values is expected to be as high as <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>- 15%<\/strong><\/span>. <\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignleft\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/valori-immobiliari-1024x395.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1552 lazyload\"\/><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"395\" src=\"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/valori-immobiliari-1024x395.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1552 lazyload\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/valori-immobiliari-1024x395.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/valori-immobiliari-300x116.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/valori-immobiliari-768x297.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/valori-immobiliari-1536x593.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/valori-immobiliari-2048x791.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/valori-immobiliari.jpg 2235w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/noscript><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p><strong>In the report that you can download in full at the end of this article<\/strong>, Nomisma also analyzes the impact of the <strong>coronavirus<\/strong> crisis on mortgage lending.<\/p>\n\n<p>While the pre-virus trend showed us <strong>53.4 bn<\/strong> disbursed for financing the purchase of real estate, today the <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Hardissimo<\/span> scenario sees a reduction to <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>37.9 bn<\/strong><\/span> by <strong>2020<\/strong> and <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>21,2<\/strong> <\/span>for <strong>2021<\/strong>. This means <strong>30 billion<\/strong> euros less circulating in the country's real economy. <\/p>\n\n<p>As I am writing these lines I am looking for <strong>a positive aspect<\/strong> to point out, a correlation between the performance of past economic crises and the current one but one that could result in positive hope or room for improvement...but I cannot find it. What has hit our country (the whole world really), with its already fragile economy that was laying the groundwork for a recovery, <strong>is an unprecedented storm<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n<p>Below is the video interview conducted for Fimaa Veneto<\/p>\n\n<p><iframe class=\"lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/C7Kw-nfcvsA\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n\n<p>However, I do not want to end this article without a positive message for you who are reading me.<\/p>\n\n<p>This <strong>crisis that has hit<\/strong> us has given us and will give us a <strong>sense of belonging<\/strong> that perhaps we did not have before. In the months ahead there will be a great need for <strong>solidarity, civil and economic.<\/strong> Already in these two months of quarantine we have seen how businesses have converted in a short time to produce basic necessities to cope with the emergency. <strong>Minds and souls<\/strong> have come together to pursue a common purpose not necessarily related to profit.  <\/p>\n\n<p>There are those who have provided their knowledge, products and manpower for free to give an unambiguous answer.<strong>  We do not give up.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<p>Online movements have sprung up with the intention of enhancing our area, promoting little-known tourist destinations, local businesses and small stories of <strong>entrepreneur-heroes<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n<p>Although some sectors have been completely destabilized at the grassroots ( tourism, mobility, catering) this particular moment requires us to make a <strong>sudden change in operations and perspective<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n<p>This year as a people we must look at each other in the face, investing in <strong>our territory<\/strong>, <strong>our products<\/strong> and <strong>our culture<\/strong>. Today more than ever, a <strong>common enemy<\/strong> from afar has made us all equal and forced us to become a<strong>united community under one flag<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n<p>I hope that this spirit of <strong>collaboration<\/strong>, <strong>neighborliness<\/strong> and <strong>technological innovation<\/strong> will remain when all this has passed. And make us a <strong>better country<\/strong> and <strong>better people<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n<p>Like a small seed making its way through the rubble, we will grow <strong>back--stronger and more aware than before<\/strong>!<\/p>\n\n<p>If you are looking to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/vendere-casa-a-verona\/\">sell your home<\/a> at this time, please contact me!<\/p>\n\n<p>Thank you for reading this article, if you feel it might be a useful message for others, I ask you the courtesy to share it with whomever you like!<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignleft\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/Scenari-previsionali_Noimisma-Aprile-2020.pdf\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/download-pdf-button-1-1024x299.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1327 lazyload\"\/><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"299\" src=\"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/download-pdf-button-1-1024x299.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1327 lazyload\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/download-pdf-button-1-1024x299.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/download-pdf-button-1-300x88.png 300w, https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/download-pdf-button-1-768x224.png 768w, https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/download-pdf-button-1-1536x449.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/download-pdf-button-1-2048x598.png 2048w, https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/download-pdf-button-1.png 5256w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/noscript><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the last interview I did on behalf of Fimaa Veneto with Luca Dondi CEO of Nomisma, I had left off with a \"we hope to hear back soon with more comforting and positive data...\" Well, Luca I heard back from him-but not for positive data!!! In this article you will find an update of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":7955,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[254],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11556","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11556","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11556"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11556\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11560,"href":"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11556\/revisions\/11560"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7955"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11556"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11556"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.alessandropasqual.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11556"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}