As every year, June coincides with the publication by the OMI(Osservatorio Mercato Immobiliare - Agenzia delle Entrate) of the first statistics of the new fiscal year for the residential market. Statistics that, as was to be expected, confirm the good continuation of the expansive trend in real estate, with an increase in residential transactions of + 8.8 percent, slowing slightly from + 9.3 percent. The seasonally adjusted figure also appears to be on the rise, thus reaffirming the highest levels since the beginning of the recent historical series (2011).
A closer look
Going into more detail, a reading of the first OMI dossier for 2019 shows that the Northeast and the Center have confirmed themselves as the two macro-territorial areas with the highest growth rate of buying and selling, although they too have slowed down slightly compared to the previous survey (+ 11.8% and + 10.7%, respectively). The performance of the Northwest (+ 9.6 percent), where more than one-third of the national market is still concentrated, is also particularly comforting, while the South (+ 4.8 percent) and the Islands (+ 3.3 percent) have a more subdued development.
There are no major differences between capital and noncapital municipalities, with essentially similar growth rates (+ 8.7 percent and + 8.9 percent). The only noteworthy diversity is in the South, where, moreover, the only negative rate at the macro area level appears (the - 0.4 percent of capital municipalities). In terms of area, the average size falls in the North Central, while it increases in the Islands and the South. The balance between areas means that the average area at the national level is essentially stable.
The situation in large cities
Focusing then solely in what is happening in the big cities, we note how the Peninsula's two main real estate realities, such as Rome and Milan, brought in growth rates of 11.9 percent (7,921 transactions) and 11.3 percent (6,119 transactions), respectively.
However, the most substantial development took place in Genoa (+ 15.2% to 1,882 transactions) and Bologna (+ 12.9% to 1,390 transactions), while Turin (+ 2.0%) and Palermo (+ 2.0%) have a more restrained trend, contracting compared to the previous quarter (with particular reference to the Sicilian capital, which had shown an acceleration to + 18.5% in Q4 2018). On the other hand, both Naples (- 1.3%) and Florence (- 5.2%) close the first quarter with a negative sign.
Expectations of real estate agents improve
Finally, let us close with a quick mention of the latest surveys carried out on the expectations of real estate agents, who in relation to their target market express greater optimism, so much so that the balance between favorable and unfavorable judgments has now risen to 17.4 percent, up from 9.0 percent in the previous survey. The share of agencies that expect conditions to worsen, however, has dropped from 10.3 percent to 6.1 percent, while the expectation on a medium-term horizon, on the other hand, has improved.
The share of agencies indicating an increase in assignments to sell grew from 9 percent to 9.7 percent, while the number of potential buyers struggled to develop.
